Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
